West Shouldn't Lift Sanctions Just Yet:
Post-Milosevic Serbia Must Prove Its Dedication to Cooperation, Human Rights

By R. Bruce Hitchner, for the Dayton Daily News

THE END OF THE REGIME of Slobodan Milosevic is cause for both celebration and concern. The people of Serbia have chosen democracy, and for this the world should be grateful.

This a welcome change after 13 years of post-communist despotism. In the coming weeks it will be important to watch how the Serbian people deal with those who served Milosevic. Revenge, bloodshed and even civil unrest cannot be ruled out.

Russia and the West have indicated that they will lift sanctions as quickly as possible. But before the world fully embraces Vojislav Kostunica, it should remember that he is a nationalist who has opposed turning Milosevic, indicted for war crimes, over to The Hague. Kostunica also has opposed the Dayton Peace Accords and believes Kosovo should be reincorporated into Serbia.

The international community should set clear benchmarks for Kostunica before it automatically lifts sanctions. It should insist that Milosevic, if he survives, be turned over to The Hague. It should call on the new leader of Serbia to recognize the Dayton accords and in particular the inviolability of the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The United States, Europe and Russia should urge Kostunica to begin constructive negotiations with Montenegro on whether it remains part of the former Yugoslavia or becomes independent. Most important of all, the international community must demand that Serbia cease its campaign of political destabilization in Kosovo.
Europe and America also should be cautious about pouring new aid into Serbia at the expense of the peacekeeping and rebuilding effort in Bosnia and Kosovo.

Indeed, Milosevic's departure opens new possibilities for resolving many of the problems in both. For Bosnia, there is hope for greater cooperation between the Bosnian Serb entity (the Republika Srpska) and the Bosnian-Croat Federation created by the Dayton accords, as well as greater Bosnian Muslim refugee return and resettlement in Srpska. Kostunica should be encouraged to follow the example of President Stjepan Mesic in Croatia, who has made reconciliation and cooperation with Bosnia and Herzegovina a top foreign-policy priority.

It is in Kosovo, however, where most may be gained or lost from the change in government in Belgrade. Since the end of the war there in 1999, Kosovo has been caught up in a cycle of violence between Kosovar Albanians and Serbs perpetrated by Milosevic and some Albanians who seek to rid Kosovo of Serbs by any means. This unfortunate situation has, moreover, been sustained by the indecisiveness of the international community over the future legal status of Kosovo.

Kostunica could take advantage of this continued uncertainty over Kosovo and his current international popularity to push for the reintegration of Kosovo into Serbia, a strategy not necessarily opposed by the Europeans and Kosovo's neighbors. The United States should warn Serbia that this would be a mistake, as it would likely lead to increased tensions in Kosovo and possibly civil unrest, in view of the overwhelming preference of Kosovar Albanians for independence.

At the same time, it also should warn the Kosovar Albanians that any hopes they have for an independent Kosovo will depend on their ability to establish a viable government that includes and protects the rights all of the people of Kosovo, including its Serbian and Romany minorities.

The birth of a newly democratic Serbia is a welcome event that will lead to a more stable political, social and economic environment in southeastern Europe. But as events of the last decade have shown, there is still much about Serbian nationalism that needs to be held in check if Serbia is to succeed as a genuine democracy and as country that can live peacefully and constructively with its neighbors.

The international community must assist Serbia in achieving its full potential through policies that link the lifting of sanctions and aid to the pursuit of human rights and justice at home, peaceful relations with its neighbors and a recognition that nationalism has been a destructive force in recent Serbian and Balkan history that must be restrained.

R. Bruce Hitchner, Ph.D., is chairman of the Dayton Peace Accords Project and director of the Center for International Programs at the University of Dayton.