PEACE NEGOTIATIONS WATCH
Monday, February 13, 2006
(Volume V, Number 3)
Contents:
Georgia seeking to oust Russia from breakaway territories: report
Ukraine and Latvia are possible replacements for Russian peacekeepers from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
UN sanctions 'unjust and ridiculous': presidential party
Three Ivorian politicians isolated for last month's anti-UN protests.
Indian PM to hold talks with pro-independence Kashmiri leader
Talks between Prime Minister Singh and Yasin Malik are set for Feb. 17 in New Delhi.
Pakistan's President Seeks U.S. Mediation
Prior to President Bush's first visit to Pakistan, Musharraf addresses Kashmir and regional issues.
Kosovo
Kosovo elects new president after death of pro-independence leader
Moderate President Fatmir Sejdiu replaces Rugova.
Serb nationalist's call to use 'all means' to prevent Kosovo independence stirs criticism
Members of Kosovo's Serb community call nationalist's remarks counterproductive.
Hearing in Liberian ex-president asylum case adjourned
In Nigeria, former Liberian president Charles Taylor's case is adjouned until next month.
Separatists dismantle metal barrier they erected outside Moldovan village
Separatists have dismantled a metal fence they erected outside a Moldovan village that had forced residents to cross the frozen Dniester River to reach the rest of the country.
Morocco says it will submit a proposal to the United Nations in April that would grant autonomy to the people of Western Sahara.
After 10 years of rebellion, Maoist rebels press their fight in Nepal
Diplomats and analysts say the rebels have skillfully exploited a split between Nepal's king and the political parties he usurped.
Peace a long way off despite deal with Philippine rebels: analysts
A preliminary deal on sharing ancestral land is a positive step toward ending a decades-old rebellion but lasting peace remains a long way off, analysts said.
Serbian president opens door for new Kosovo leader .
Serbia 's pro-Western President Boris Tadic said his door was open for direct talks with Kosovo's newly elected leader, Fatmir Sejdiu.
Montenegro to hold independence vote April 30: minister
Montenegro will hold a referendum to decide whether to break off from its larger federation partner Serbia on April 30.
Somali rivals iron out details of first parliament session
Main rivals in Somalia 's divided transitional government pledged to work together for peace in the lawless nation as parliament prepares to meet for the first time on Somali soil.
Sri Lanka 's Tigers reject political talks ahead of Geneva talks
Tiger rebels ruled out peace negotiations later this month with the Sri Lanka government and said only their faltering truce would be on the agenda as both sides prepared for an ice-breaking meeting in Geneva.
Leaders of Sudan, Chad sign peace deal; agree to bar rebel groups, normalize relations
The leaders of Sudan and Chad have signed a peace agreement to end increasing tension over Sudan's Darfur region, pledging to normalize diplomatic relations and deny refuge to each other's rebel groups.
Major powers must play role in Sudan peacekeeping mission, Annan says
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Thursday he will ask President Bush for the United Statse to play a major role in a peacekeeping force in Sudan 's Darfur region.
Genocide in Darfur: A
Legal Analysis Click here to access
the PILPG
Report.
Armenia says talks on Nagorno-Karabakh were positive
Associated Press, 2/13/06
Armenia saw last week's talks with Azerbaijan on the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh as positive, despite the failure to reach an agreement, a government spokesman said Monday. Presidents Robert Kocharian of Armenia and Ilham Aliev of Azerbaijan reached no agreement Saturday on how to end the 18-year conflict over the enclave, despite two days of intense one-on-one talks at a chateau in Rambouillet, south of Paris.
"Even though no agreement has been reached, Armenia positively views the continuation of talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement," Kocharian's spokesman Viktor Sogomonian said. Azerbaijan's foreign minister said his country's insistence on territorial integrity and the return of Azerbaijani refugees to Nagorno-Karabakh were the two main sticking points at the talks. Azerbaijan will not make any concessions on the question of territorial integrity," Elmar Mammadyarov was quoted as saying Sunday by ANS television.Sogomonian refused to comment on the Azerbaijani statements.
Nagorno-Karabakh is inside Azerbaijan but populated mostly
by ethnic Armenians, who have run it since an uneasy 1994 cease-fire ended six
years of war. Sporadic border clashes continue to kill people each year and
some sections are heavily mined.
Georgia seeking to oust Russia from breakaway territories: report
Agence France Presse, 2/8/06
Georgia hopes to persuade friendly countries such as Ukraine and Latvia to take over from Russian peacekeepers it accuses of propping up two breakaway regions, the independent Russian daily Kommersant said Wednesday.
President Mikheil Saakashvili attended an international conference on security in Munich last weekend "specially to get international support" for the exit of Russian peacekeepers from South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the newspaper said."Tbilisi is actively searching for countries that could be called on to replace the Russian peacekeepers," the paper said. The head of Ukraine's national security council had made such an offer, the paper said, while Latvia's parliament speaker had announced at an inter-parliamentary conference Tuesday that Riga would be ready to help.
Georgia's parliament was to debate on Friday whether to issue a request to Russia to pull its peacekeepers out of the two breakaway territories that split from Tbilisi after the Soviet Union's 1991 collapse, Kommersant said.
The head of South Ossetia's administration, Eduard Kokoity, told a Moscow news conference Tuesday that the territory was ready to defend itself and to call on neighbouring Russian provinces such as North Ossetia for help, the paper said."Active preparations are under away, including the recruitment of young people into the army," Kokoity said. "The main part of the... Ossetian people live in North Ossetia, which doesn't remain indifferent, as is the case for other North Caucasus" provinces.
The article comes amid growing tension between Tbilisi and Moscow over South Ossetia and Abkhazia following an explosion on a gas pipeline from Russia that disrupted heat and power supplies in Georgia last month and recent tense confrontations between Georgian and Russian troops.The pro-Western Saakashvili made reuniting his country a key goal after he was swept to power in a "rose revolution" in 2003 and elected president early the next year.Tbilisi fought armed conflicts with both South Ossetia and Abkhazia following the Soviet Union's collapse.
Georgia sees OSCE support for South Ossetia peace plan
Agence France Presse, 2/9/06
Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bejouachvili said here Thursday he was "encouraged by the support" the country received for its peace plan in breakaway South Ossetia by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
The plan calls for various steps to demilitarize South Ossetia and to give political autonomy to the region, which is backed by Moscow, the Georgian minister told journalists in Vienna, where the OSCE is based.The plan also calls for international participation by Russia, the United States, the European Union and the OSCE, whose 55 member states first approved the plan at a conference in the Slovenian capital of Ljubljana last December.
The Georgians blamed the Russians for making little progress with the peace initiative. But the Russian delegate Vladimir Vornokov said that after a "rather positive" year in 2005 for Georgian-Russian relations, he regretted that the peace plan was "interrupted".A meeting of the joint control commission, with representatives from Georgia, Russia, and both South and North Ossetia, has been set for February 20-21 in Vienna, an OSCE spokesman said.
Fourteen years after the two sides fought a brief war, South Ossetians remain embittered towards Tbilisi and at daggers drawn with the ethnic Georgians whose villages are dotted throughout South Ossetia.The Russian ruble is a widely used currency here, the Russian language is used for official purposes and portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin line the roads.
UN sanctions 'unjust and ridiculous': presidential party
Agence France Presse, 2/8/06
UN sanctions slapped on three Ivorian politicians seen as obstacles to peace in the west African country are "unjust and ridiculous," President Laurent Gbagbo's party said Wednesday."It's an unjust, unjustified and even ridiculous decision," Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) president Pascal Affi N'Guessan told AFP.
One of the men targeted by the sanctions, the chief of the rebel army Forces Nouvelles (FN) Martin Kouakou Fofie, told AFP the sanctions were a "mistake that must be quickly rectified. I do not see how the FN held up the peace process," he said, speaking by telephone from Korhogo in FN-held northern Ivory Coast. "I have a mission which I will see carry out to the end" to defend Korhogo, he added. Fofie and two leaders of the pro-Gbagbo Young Patriots youth movement, Eugene Djue and Charles Ble Goude, are subject to a travel ban and 12-month freezing of their assets brought into effect by the UN on Tuesday.
Goude and Djue "cannot be considered obstacles to peace in Ivory Coast. They have not taken up arms," N'Guessan said, referring to the sanctions as a "confession of impotence" by the UN. "The sanctions are unjust and ineffective," Djue said. "We have not attacked Ivory Coast, we have done nothing but defend our country." However he called on "patriots" loyal to his group not to react to the UN action.
The UN imposed a 12-month travel ban and asset freeze on the three men, blaming them for anti-UN disturbances last month in the west African nation. It said they impeded the operation of the 7,000-strong UN mission in Ivory Coast (ONUCI) and of the 4,000-strong French military contingent backing it. The US on Wednesday also sanctioned the three men. President George W. Bush froze their assets in the US, accusing them of hampering the peace process in their homeland. He said the violent situation in Ivory Coast "constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."
The UN accused troops under Fofie of "recruitment of child soldiers, abductions, imposition of forced labor, sexual abuse, arbitrary arrests and extra-judicial killings" in violation of human rights and humanitarian law. The UN ban came in response to four days of anti-UN protests by Gbagbo loyalists last month after an international mediation group ruled that the Ivorian parliament should be dissolved because its five-year term had expired in December.Anticipating a fresh outbreak of unrest by pro-Gbagbo militiamen once the sanctions are imposed, the UN Security Council on Monday authorized a 200-strong mechanized unit from its mission in Liberia to reinforce ONUCI until late March. FPI President Affi N'Guessan alleged that "the UN recognises its impotence to sanction the real authors of the Ivorian crisis and contents itself to sanction the victims," saying that the measures added to the "loss of credibility of the UN in the eyes of Ivorians."
The FN website reported Wednesday that the head of the European Commission delegation to Ivory Coast, Michel Arrion, met the FN Secretary General Guillaume Soro in Bouake, central Ivory Coast, to "review the peace process".The opposition newspaper Le Patriote reported that Soro had also visited Nigeria on Tuesday to solicit help from the Nigerian leader and former African Union head Olusegun Obasanjo.Soro declined to comment to AFP on the sanctions.
FN spokesman Alain Lobognon said the FN had written to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and was awaiting a response before stating its official position.Denis Maho Goflehi, head of the Great Western Liberation Front (FLGO), the pro-government militia in western Ivory Coast, described himself as "very annoyed and very angry", saying the sanctions were an excessive "provocation" which "could have consequences".Goflehi had earlier expressed displeasure at the return of ONUCI peacekeepers to western Ivory Coast.
The situation in the world's leading cocoa producer was calm
and normal Wednesday hours after the sanctions came into effect, however, with
public transport ferrying commuters to work as normal.The media focused on Ivory
Coast's victory in the African Cup of Nations semi-finals which saw the country
qualify for the finals of the continent's premier football tournament.
Indian PM to hold talks with pro-independence Kashmiri leader
Agence France Presse, 2/13/06
Indian premier Manmohan Singh will hold talks with Kashmiri pro-independence leader Yasin Malik on ending a decades-old dispute over the Himalayan region, an official said Monday.
"The talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi are scheduled for February 17," said Sanjaya Baru, Singh's media advisor.Malik is a former militant who now heads the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front movement that has repeatedly called for a boycott of all India-organised elections in Kashmir.The talks with Malik come almost a month after Singh had discussions with another pro-independence Kashmiri separatist, Saajad Lone.
Singh's talks with Kashmiri leaders follow his decision to meet all separatists from the Indian-administered zone of Kashmir, where an Islamic insurgency has been raging since 1989 costing some 44,000 lives.India accuses Pakistan of helping the insurgency in Kashmir, which has been the trigger of two of their three wars since 1947.Pakistan denies the charge but admits extending moral, political and diplomatic support to Kashmiris waging what it terms a "freedom struggle".India and Pakistan both claim the scenic Himalayan region in its entirety but administer it in part.Kashmiri separatists -- whose demands range from independence to merger with Pakistan -- have been demanding tripartite talks involving India, Pakistan and the "true representatives" of the Kashmiri people.They also demand the implementation of decades-old UN Security Council resolutions calling for a plebiscite in the region on its future.
India says the UN resolutions are obsolete and the dispute over Kashmir -- which it describes "as an integral part of its territory" -- must be resolved bilaterally with Pakistan.In September Singh held his first direct talks with a moderate faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, the main umbrella body grouping the Kashmiri separatists.The talks followed a visit by some of its members to Pakistan in June.The moderates held two rounds of talks with the previous Hindu nationalist government in 2004 on the future of Kashmir, but a hardline splinter group rejected any dialogue with New Delhi.
Pakistan's President Seeks U.S. Mediation
Associated Press, 2/13/06
Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said Monday that cooperation with America in the war on terror was "excellent" despite a U.S. missile strike that killed 13 civilians in a border village last month, triggering street protests.
Speaking weeks ahead of President Bush's first visit to Pakistan, Musharraf appealed for Washington to act as an intermediary in settling Pakistan's bitter dispute with rival India over the divided Himalayan region of Kashmir."This can be resolved now, and the United States must contribute," Musharraf told a group of visiting American and Asian journalists. "President Bush is coming here. I hope he understands the reality." Bush is due to visit India and Pakistan next month, his first trip to the subcontinent. Musharraf threw Pakistan's support behind the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan and broader war on al-Qaida and has weathered tough domestic criticism over his close ties with the United States.
Musharraf said Pakistan's sovereignty had been violated by the Jan. 13 missile attack, reportedly by a Predator drone targeting al-Qaida No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri. Islamabad lodged a diplomatic protest with the U.S. after nationwide street demonstrations.Thirteen civilians died in the attack in the northwestern tribal region of Bajur near the Afghan border. Musharraf also said last week that five foreign militants, including an al-Qaida operative and a relative of al-Zawahri, were killed, although their bodies have not been found.Musharraf expressed regret that civilians, including women and children, died but said the locals were "guilty of harboring people who are carrying out terrorism in Pakistan and outside in the world."
Despite the apparent lack of communication over the attack, Musharraf praised U.S.-Pakistani cooperation in the war on terror."We have excellent understanding and coordination with the United States forces in Afghanistan," he said.Musharraf said that, as the only superpower, the United States had to help end the six-decade dispute between Pakistan and India over Kashmir.
"I believe now, at this moment, Kashmir is ripe for a resolution," he said at the army chief's headquarters at Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad. "The people of Kashmir, on both sides of the border the Line of Control are for peace."The South Asian nuclear rivals have made little headway in settling their competing claims to the Himalayan province, the focus of two wars between them since independence in 1947."It is their responsibility to resolve disputes all over the world," Musharraf said of the U.S. "They have to resolve all political disputes which all concern Muslims, unfortunately, at the moment."
Indian officials had no immediate comment. However, New Delhi has in the past rejected mediation by other countries, saying the dispute over Kashmir has to be settled by India and Pakistan.Musharraf said another of his top priorities was expanding economic ties with the United States."We are looking for more trade and not aid," he said.
Notwithstanding his alliance with Washington, Musharraf said Islamabad stood by its plans for a transnational pipeline that would move gas from Iran to Pakistan and then on to India, saying Pakistan's growing economy demanded it.U.S. officials have said Washington opposes the pipeline.
Musharraf also said the controversy over Danish cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad was uniting moderate and radical Muslims."The most moderate Muslim will go to the street and talk against it because this hurts the sentiments of every Muslim," Musharraf said. "Whether an extremist or a moderate or an ultramoderate, we will condemn it."
He said his country would be opposed to a U.S. attack on Iran over concerns it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons but had little power to stop it. Tehran claims its nuclear program is peaceful."We are against any aggression against Iran," he said. "However, if the United States attacks, I don't know how we could interfere."When asked about reports that the U.S. was making plans for a possible military strike against Iran, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday that the United States was dedicated to a diplomatic solution, but the "president never takes any options off the table."
Kashmir Negotiation Simulation
Click
here to access the Kashmir Negotiation Simulation prepared by the Public International
Law & Policy Group.
Kosovo elects new president after death of pro-independence leader
The Associated Press, 2/10/06
Kosovo lawmakers elected a moderate new president Friday, paving the way for the start of talks on the province's future status.
President Fatmir Sejdiu told The Associated Press Friday that he would not abandon the ethnic Albanian majority's push for independence from Serbia. But he pledged in his acceptance speech to make Kosovo a state that guarantees minority rights and is "at peace with itself and its neighbors." "Kosovo's independence is non-negotiable," Sejdiu said in an interview at his modest house in Pristina. "For us it is very important that this road to independence is a quick one," he said.
The parliament voted 80-12 to make Sejdiu Kosovo's second president since a NATO bombing campaign ended a Serb crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists in 1999. He replaces pro-independence leader Ibrahim Rugova, who died of lung cancer on Jan. 21.Since 1999 Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations, leaving open the question of whether it becomes independent or remains part of Serbia.A top Serbian ultranationalist leader, meanwhile, said Friday that if Kosovo gains independence Belgrade will declare it an occupied territory.
The presidential post in Kosovo is largely ceremonial but it has gained importance because the president is to lead negotiations with Serb officials.Sejdiu, a 54-year-old law professor and member of parliament, has been secretary-general of Kosovo's largest party, the ruling Democratic League of Kosovo, which he helped found in the early 1990s. He is considered a political moderate but his positions on Kosovo's status are nearly identical to Rugova's.
Sejdiu pledged in his acceptance speech to work closely with the United States and European Union "to make Kosovo a state, at peace with itself and its neighbors ... a country that will guarantee all civic freedoms and those of minorities according to the highest international standards."Rugova dominated the province's politics for 16 years and epitomized ethnic Albanians' quest for independence. His death caused the latest of several delays in negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia.
U.N.-mediated talks are expected to start around Feb. 20 in Vienna, Austria. Western diplomats recently indicated that Kosovo's quest for independence from Serbia was conditional on its becoming a democracy that respects minority rights. The first round of negotiations will deal with local government reforms meant to give Kosovo's Serbs and other minorities greater say in where they live.
Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the extreme nationalist Serbian Radical Party, said no politician in Serbia would accept Kosovo independence."If someone declares an independent Kosovo ... we will declare that an occupation and use all means to revoke that state of occupation," Nikolic said.Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and President Boris Tadic also have rejected independence for Kosovo.
Serb nationalist's call to use 'all means' to prevent Kosovo independence stirs criticism
Associated Press, 2/11/06
Several prominent members of Kosovo's Serb minority spoke out Saturday against a nationalist leader who said Serbs should use "all means" to keep Kosovo from gaining independence.
One representative of the dwindling Serb community in Kosovo, Oliver Ivanovic, said the remarks were counterproductive and would only heighten tensions before U.N.-mediated talks to determine if the province will remain part of Serbia.On Friday, Tomislav Nikolic, of the right-wing Radical Party, said Serbia should declare Kosovo "occupied territory ... and defend it by all means" if world powers decide to make it a sovereign state.
Ivanovic said such talk would hurt efforts to keep Kosovo within Serbia."We don't need such strong words now," Ivanovic said. "We need to work with the international community to try to ... reduce the risk of losing the territory."Kosovo has been a U.N.-run protectorate since 1999, when NATO bombing forced Serb troops to halt a crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists there.While it formally remains part of Serbia, Kosovo is mostly populated by ethnic Albanians, who have rejected offers of broad autonomy and demand outright independence.
Kosovo Negotiation
Simulation
Click
here to access the Kosovo Negotiation Simulation prepared by the Public
International Law & Policy Group.
Hearing in Liberian ex-president asylum case adjourned
Agence France Presse, 2/7/06
Hearings in a suit filed to challenge the asylum granted by Nigeria to Liberian former president Charles Taylor resumed Tuesday at a federal high court here, after a two-month suspension, and then adjourned.
At its last sitting on November 1, Judge Steven Adah had ruled that his court had jurisdiction to entertain the suit, which was filed by two Nigerians who had lost limbs in Sierra Leone, allegedly on Taylor's orders. They challenged the asylum granted Taylor by the Nigerian government in August 2003. Nigerian government lawyers later filed an appeal against Adah's ruling.
At Tuesday's session, defence counsel told the court that since that appeal had been filed, the court was bound to stay further proceedings. The judge adjourned further hearings until March 8 when the plaintiffs would respond to the defence lawyers' arguments.One of the plaintiffs, David Anyaele, 35, who was amputated in Freetown by rebels of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), allegedly on the orders of Taylor, told AFP last week that the indictment of Taylor at a UN tribunal was the "surest way to bring about true reconciliation in Liberia."
"Bringing Charles Taylor to justice is the surest way to bring about true reconciliation and peace in Liberia," said Anyaele, who was captured and mutilated in 1999 by Taylor-backed RUF rebels who had invaded Sierra Leone in January of that year.Anyaele now heads the "Amputees Rehabilitation Foundation" in Lagos.
Taylor stepped down as Liberian leader in August 2003 and was given asylum in Nigeria to allow a UN-brokered peace process to bring an end to 14 years of civil wars.Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has defied international pressure to hand over Taylor to the Freetown tribunal, insisting he would surrender him only to an elected Liberian government.
Separatists dismantle metal barrier they erected outside Moldovan village
Associated Press, 2/7/06
Separatists have dismantled a metal fence they erected outside a Moldovan village that had forced residents to cross the frozen Dniester River to reach the rest of the country, authorities said Tuesday.
The village of Cocieri, in the Dubasari region, is located on the eastern bank of the River Dniester along with the breakaway region of Trans-Dniester, while most of Moldova is on the west river bank.To reach the west bank, Cocieri villagers normally crossed a bridge near a Trans-Dniester hydroelectric plant. Last week, access to the bridge was blocked by a 2-meter-high (7-foot-high) fence erected outside the plant, apparently to keep nonworkers away.
Grigore Policinschi, the government representative for the Dubasari region, said late Monday that the fence had been dismantled. He said that eight Trans-Dniester militia were patrolling the area where the fence had been."Probably the separatists realized that the fence was seriously breaking the (a 1992) agreement (between Moldova and the separatists) and they decided not to block people's access," he said.
Viktor Shanin, a separatist official, was quoted by the Trans-Dniester Lenta PMR news agency as saying that the barrier had not blocked residents' access, calling it "a protection fence."
In Moldova, however, the move was seen as an attempt to limit villagers' movement, as Trans-Dniester has said Cocieri should be part of its region.Cocieri villagers wanting to reach the western side had been forced to walk across the frozen river.Trans-Dniester, a region inhabited largely by ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, broke away from Moldova in 1992, after a war that killed 1,500 people. It is not recognized internationally, but receives strong support from Russia, which maintains a force of about 1,500 troops there.Representatives of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe traveled to the barrier to examine the situation. The OSCE is one of the mediators in talks in Moldova aimed at resolving the dispute between the government and the separatists.
Autonomy offered in Western Sahara; Solution to long battle gains urgency
The Washington Times, 2/8/06
It is an arid, sparsely populated part of the world on the Atlantic coast of North Africa. For decades, the Western Sahara has been caught in a tug of war between Morocco and Algeria.
Morocco seized the territory in 1975 after it gained independence from Spain and refuses to give up control. Algeria, which shelters the separatist movement known as the Polisario Front, insists the Western Saharans should have their say in the matter. After decades of squabbling, war and failed negotiations, Morocco says it will submit a proposal to the United Nations in April that would grant autonomy to the people of Western Sahara.
"We are ready to take this risk as a compromise," said Taib Fassi Fihri, Morocco's minister delegate for foreign affairs and cooperation. "We are ready to go as far as we can to negotiate. When everybody agrees, we can grant autonomy in good faith."Under this plan, the Sahrawis, as the area's people are called, would run their own affairs while remaining under Moroccan sovereignty.
Government spokesman Nabil Benabdallah said the terms of the proposal will be defined during negotiations, but indicated they would involve "total devolution of authority on people over everyday affairs." This does not mean self-government, he said."Morocco will still be in charge of issues such as defense and foreign affairs." If the plan is accepted, Morocco will become the first country in the Arab world to give autonomy to one of its territories. Observers familiar with the 30-year dispute see the plan as something new.
Robert Holley, executive director of the Moroccan American Center for Policy, a Washington-based nonprofit organization created to enhance Moroccan-U.S. relations, said the initiative sets a precedent for a diverse nation that has opposed separatism.
Shadow of terrorism
"For a thousand years, Morocco has tried to make diversity work against the tendency for diversity to spin off into something else," said Mr. Holley. "For Morocco to say they're willing to accept autonomy is a politically courageous thing because of the risks attached."
Moroccan officials, however, say the risks of not reaching a compromise could be worse. They warn that if a political solution is not found, the Sahel - the belt of countries between North Africa and states south of the Sahara, where borders are less controlled, could become a breeding ground for terrorism."There are a lot of young people in the Sahel who are leaning towards radical Islam, with groups such as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat gaining ground," said Hamid Chabar, the Moroccan representative of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara, created in 1991.
Khalid Zerouali, director of migration and border surveillance in the Moroccan Interior Ministry, calls the Sahel a "no man's land controlled by terrorists and mafia groups." He said the presence of the Polisario Front makes it even more dangerous."The Polisario is made up of 10,000 idle soldiers. Half of them went to Cuba to learn sabotage techniques that can be used by terror groups," Mr. Zerouali said. The Polisario's representative at the United Nations in New York denies his organization is linked to Islamic terrorist groups. Ahmed Boukhari told United Press International that the Polisario is "a clean movement that does not support terrorism."
Referendum elusive
The Polisario Front was formed in 1973 to fight Spain's protectorate over the Western Sahara, a region rich in phosphates, Atlantic fisheries and perhaps offshore oil. After Morocco annexed much of the territory in 1976, the Polisario, which had proclaimed the region independent, began attacks with Algeria's backing and shifted its base to Tindouf in western Algeria. Boosted by the growing population of Sahrawi refugees in its camps, as well as by Algerian arms and money, the Polisario waged a hit-and-run war with Morocco. Fighting stopped Sept. 6, 1991, when the U.N. mission brokered a cease-fire on the promise of a referendum on independence.
Disagreements over who could vote stalled the referendum, which never took place, despite efforts by James A. Baker III starting in 1997. The American diplomat worked out two settlement plans, but neither won the support of all parties. He resigned in 2004 after Morocco rejected the second proposal, which called for a referendum after five years of autonomy.
"Morocco was prepared to use Baker's first settlement plan as a basis for negotiations, but the Polisario refused to accept anything but a referendum," recalled a Western analyst close to Moroccan authorities who asked not to be identified."Nobody wanted to push Algeria too hard because they thought the country, which was deep in civil war at the time, was too fragile, and [the United States] did not have a big foreign policy agenda. So the whole thing went flat."
Pressure for solution
Recent events have renewed pressure on Morocco to develop a solution. Since May, protests demanding independence have erupted in Western Sahara towns. At the same time, the Polisario has threatened to resume attacks against Morocco unless a referendum is held.
The Western analyst who spoke on background said Washington has asked Morocco to present a proposal that would encourage negotiations before the dispute escalates."We need to put something on the table before something happens out there in the Sahel and blows up in our face," he said. "The U.S. doesn't have the forces necessary to handle a conflict in the Sahel. ... I think what's happening in Morocco is more important to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East than people realize."
The Polisario Front already has rejected Morocco's autonomy proposal. In a letter last week to U.N. Ambassador John R. Bolton, the U.N. Security Council president for February, Mr. Boukhari said only a referendum on independence "offers real possibilities for a just and lasting resolution of the conflict of Western Sahara."Moroccan authorities are urging other parties, especially the United States, to support the autonomy proposal when they present it to the U.N. Security Council in April. They say only international pressure can persuade Algeria to take the next step in resolving the Sahara dispute."We have offered something that helps Algeria save face," said Mr. Fassi Fihri, the Moroccan minister delegate for foreign affairs. "But now, Algeria also has to compromise."
After 10 years of rebellion, Maoist rebels press their fight in Nepal
Associated Press, 2/13/06
They came just after dinnertime, hundreds of communist rebels in green fatigues, flowing in from every direction.One group stormed down the brick lanes of Panauti's old town past Hindu temples crowned with pagodas, the Buddhist shrines, the well-appointed homes to cut off the small army garrison. Others headed for the town's municipal offices, easily picking off a single policeman guarding the rundown box of a building, and forcing the others to flee."They took over they had total control," said Ram Hari, a 20-year-old whose apartment overlooks the offices. "They stayed here for hours." It's a story heard throughout the Himalayan kingdom as the Maoist rebels, after 10 years of rebellion and emboldened by the country's deteriorating political situation, press their fight to create a communist Nepal.
Nepal's King Gyanendra took power just over a year ago, saying he needed to oust an interim government to bring order to a chaotic and corrupt political scene and quell the rebellion, which has claimed 12,000 lives in a decade.A year on, the rebellion has intensified, the economy has fallen apart and the rebels control a third of the country."The momentum is now on our side," Suresh Ale Magar, a Maoist official, said from his prison cell in Katmandu.
That was clear in Panauti, where the insurgents killed a soldier and a policeman and bombed the municipal offices on Feb. 6, leaving bricks, glass and chunks of cement strewn around. At least the town's residents were unharmed."That they can just come in here and plant bombs and then disappear it means the king is in big trouble," said Janak Thapa, another resident.
But as brazen as the attack was, few in Nepal believe the Maoists who are estimated to have up to 12,000 lightly armed fighters can win an outright military victory.The rebels' leader suggested as much in a rare interview with the British Broadcasting Corp to mark the group's 10-year anniversary Monday."That is why we believe that in today's world it's not possible only to move forward militarily," he said. "Today's reality is to move forward both politically and militarily, with a balance of the two."
Diplomats and analysts say the rebels have skillfully exploited a split between Nepal's king and the political parties he usurped."If the legitimate constitutional forces are split, that gives the Maoists a real big opening, and they've driven that wedge in," said U.S. Ambassador James Moriarity.Asked if he thought they could help oust the king, Moriarity replied: "Absolutely."
As anachronistic as a successful communist rebellion seems in the 21st century, the Maoists' rhetoric of equality resonates deeply among Nepal's 27 million people, many of whom still toil in feudal conditions on land owned by a wealthy elite.Still, many here say the rebels' power is rooted in fear. Vocal critics have been butchered by the insurgents, who often steal from poor villagers and press young men and women into service.
But "the Maoists are canny," said Rhoderick Chalmers of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. "They are very patient. Even if their popular support is limited, they're the only group with a coherent strategy."Last year, they teamed up with the major opposition parties, an alliance that scored its first victory when it undermined municipal elections.
Wednesday's polls were billed by the king as a step toward democracy. The rebels and opposition called them an attempt by Gyanendra to legitimize his power grab. The parties peacefully boycotted; the Maoists stepped up attacks and threatened anyone who took part, killing two candidates.The result: a turnout of around 20 percent, and an ever-widening divide between the opposition and the king, who appears unwilling to back down and negotiate with either the rebels or dissidents.The turnout "clearly shows that people do not have faith in the king's promises," said Dhruba Adhikary, an independent analyst. "The king won't accept that."
In Monday's interview, Prachanda predicted the alliance would lead to the fall of the king, who he said could end up being executed or exiled."With the unity that has developed between the seven political parties, us and the civic society, and the way that the autocratic monarchy and the royal army have been cornered ... very shortly Nepal will become a republic," he said.
Many in Nepal believe the king can't hold on forever. Some
talk of massive protests leading to an abdication, others speak of a military
coup. The optimists talk of the king doing an about face and negotiating.Magar
said that whatever happens, the rebels are ready to negotiate with either the
king or the political parties both of which he casually refers to as "class
enemies," using the classic rhetoric of last century's communist regimes."We
will listen, we will be flexible we recognize the need to engage our class enemies
on the political level," he said. "We won't immediately resort to
renewing our armed struggle." But he warned: "We are not flexible
to the point that we are political and ideologically finished."
Nepal Negotiation Simulation
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Peace a long way off despite deal with Philippine rebels: analysts
Agence France Presse, 2/9/06
A preliminary deal between the Philippine government and Muslim separatists on sharing ancestral land is a positive step toward ending a decades-old rebellion but lasting peace remains a long way off, analysts said.
The agreement was essentially economic, aiming to give Muslims a stake in the income generated by natural resources on the southern island of Mindanao without calling for the expulsion of Christian settlers, analysts told AFP. "At face value, the agreement gives us an idea that the peace process has moved several notches higher," said Abhoud Syed Lingga, executive director of the Institute of Bangsamoro Studies in Cotobato, Mindanao."But what we need to see is the institutional mechanism to ensure that the benefits will go down to the Bangsamoro (Philippine Muslim) masses," he said.
The deal signed in Malaysia Tuesday calls on the government and the 12,000-strong Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to jointly determine the size of the Muslim Moro homeland and work out how to share the region's mineral wealth.Muslims make up less than five percent of this mainly Roman Catholic archipelago of 84 million people. The Sulu archipelago and mineral-rich Mindanao were Muslim dominated until Spanish colonization in the 16th century.Moro land was ceded to the United States at the end of the Spanish-American war in 1898 as Christian settlers began migrating from the northern Philippines.
A joint statement released by the negotiators on Tuesday in Kuala Lumpur said that a formal agreement on ancestral domain could be signed by March to coincide with the start of formal peace talks.
Lingga said that by going beyond land issues, the agreement could see an overall scaling down of armed conflict, but he warned that smaller militant factions such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and Abu Sayyaf could become restive.JI and Abu Sayyaf have been blamed for some of the region's deadliest bombings and according to Julkipli Wadi, professor of Islamic studies at Manila's University of the Philippines, their presence "remains a peripheral issue".The MILF has put the number of deaths since the conflict erupted in the early 1970s at "over 100,000" civilians, soldiers and Muslim fighters.While the MILF has officially denounced links to foreign terrorists, regional security experts believe it has provided training camps for JI and Abu Sayyaf.
Wadi said that while the agreement "projects hope to the people" of Mindanao of economic empowerment, questions remained about the extent of ancestral lands claimed by the MILF."Where do we draw the line between what is the MILF's and the government's? What maps are being used?," he said. "Are we referring to the current demographical composition of Mindanao or are we referring to historical maps, or certain periods of Moro history? Signing a piece of paper is one thing, but actually implementing it on the ground is another," Wadi said.
Another complicating factor was the possibility that this latest deal with the MILF could supersede a 1996 peace pact between the government and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which split from the MILF in 1978.The MNLF abandoned its fight for an independent state in favour of limited self-rule under what is known as the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) which is now one of the most impoverished corners of the country.
Wadi said he believed the government could "neutralize" the MILF with offers of an economic windfall from ancestral lands, but he added "this does not guarantee a reign of peace in Mindanao. There might just be another faction in the Moro front that will become more belligerent and raise more demand," Wadi said.
Serbian president opens door for new Kosovo leader
Agence France Presse, 2/10/06
Serbia's pro-Western President Boris Tadic said his door was open for direct talks with Kosovo's newly elected leader, who assumed the post Friday ahead of key talks on the disputed province's status.
Tadic made the comment in a statement received by AFP after the parliament of UN-run Kosovo, which legally remains a part of Serbia, elected 54-year-old law professor Fatmir Sejdiu as the province's president."Mr. Sejdiu, my door is open for you to start direct talks," said the president of Serbia. The Belgrade government and Serbian people oppose granting the province's ethnic Albanian majority their wish for independence.
"We have to start finding concrete solutions to the problems of Kosovo citizens as soon as possible," said the written message to the successor to late Kosovo president Ibrahim Rugova, who died from lung cancer last month.
"I hope you will invest all efforts and your authority to ensure the security, freedom of movement, return of Serb and other refugees, preservation of cultural and religious heritage so to create good conditions for reaching a political compromise on the future status of Kosovo," Tadic said.The UN-backed future status talks between Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders and Serbia are set to resume later this month after being delayed due to Rugova's death.
Montenegro to hold independence vote April 30: minister
Agence France Presse, 2/12/06
Montenegro will hold a referendum to decide whether to break off from its larger federation partner Serbia on April 30, according to Foreign Minister Miodrag Vlahovic.
The date of the vote, which could see Serbia-Montenegro, the last remaining vestige of the former Yugoslavia, break into two independent states, is formally to be decided by parliament but Vlahovic on Saturday said it would take place the last Sunday in April."It's almost unthinkable that the referendum is not going to be successful," he told a conference at the International Institute for Peace, a Vienna-based organization involved in social, economic and political development in the Balkans.The European Union must prepare to face a "new situation" on May 1, Vlahovic said, quoted by ANA press agency.
Of six republics which formed the communist-era Yugoslavia, the tiny mountainous
state of Montenegro remains the last attached to its much larger neighbor Serbia
following a bloody series of wars in the 1990s which tore the country apart.The
pro-independence authorities in Podgorica announced plans for the referendum
despite opposition from Belgrade and appeals from European Union to delay it
until the status of the UN-run Serbian province of Kosovo is solved.Montenegro's
parliament will decide not only the date for the vote but also the wording of
the question to put to its 475,000 voters.
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Somali rivals iron out details of first parliament session
Agence France Presse, 2/13/06
The main rivals in Somalia's divided transitional government pledged Monday to work together for peace in the lawless nation as parliament prepares to meet for the first time on Somali soil.
After three days of talks, President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi and parliament speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan agreed a pact aimed at restoring badly shaken confidence in their leadership.Meeting in the central town of Galkayo, the three most powerful officials in the deeply split administration set out a seven-point declaration urging a resolution to differences that have sparked fears of greater chaos in Somalia.This called for a successful all-inclusive first session of the 275-member legislature on home territory in the town of Baidoa on February 26, invited foreign observers to the meeting and agreed the parties would work together to promote security and stability.
"The president, the parliament speaker and the premier should work jointly, in order to create confidence in the Somali population," they said, adding that they would also work for "for clemency, harmony and unity for the Somali people."In addition, the trio urged an end to factional clashes throughout the country and appealed for international aid to help Somalis threatened by a searing drought that has put millions at risk of famine in east Africa.
A deep rift over the seat of government between a faction led by Yusuf and
Gedi and another led by Adan and the warlords who control Mogadishu had prevented
the lawmakers from meeting since they left exile in Kenya last year.Under heavy
international pressure the two camps agreed to a compromise last month whereby
the parliament will meet in Baidoa, about 250 kilometers (150 miles) west of
Mogadishu, but details had remained to be worked out.Somalia has been without
a functioning central government for nearly 15 years and Yusuf's government
is the latest in more than a dozen attempts to restore stability to the nation,
which has been wracked by warlord-fuelled violence since the 1991 ouster of
strongman Mohamad Siad Barre.
Sri Lanka's Tigers reject political talks ahead of Geneva talks
Agence France Presse, 2/7/06
Tiger rebels Tuesday ruled out peace negotiations later this month with the Sri Lanka government and said only their faltering truce would be on the agenda as both sides prepared for an ice-breaking meeting in Geneva.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) said two days of talks starting February 22 that will end a three-year deadlock in their troubled peace process will focus only on saving the troubled truce."The LTTE is not prepared to discuss modifications to the ceasefire or to push the ceasefire aside and waste time talking about a political solution (to the conflict)," the LTTE said in their official magazine "Vuduthalaippulikal".
President Mahinda Rajapakse came to power in November promising to drastically change the peace process and re-negotiate the truce arranged by peace broker Norway.However, the Tigers said the truce concluded and put into effect from February 23, 2002 was a done deal and there could be no tinkering with it. The talks coincide with the third anniversary of the truce.More than 60,000 people were killed in three decades of ethnic bloodshed until the truce started, but a new wave of violence erupted in December, putting pressure on the ceasefire.
"The only way to avoid war and create peaceful environment in the Tamil homeland is to implement the ceasefire agreement in full," the LTTE said. "The key to peace talks in the present context is the full implementation of the ceasefire."Confidence to proceed with peace talks will be created only if the Mahinda government accepts this ground reality." The rebels have accused the government of supporting a breakaway faction of the rebels to carry out attacks against the mainstream guerrillas.
At least 153 people were killed in a new wave of fighting after Rajapakse came to power and many of the killings have been blamed on the Tigers who in turn accuse "paramilitary units" of stirring up trouble.The Colombo government, meanwhile, has begun training its peace team on negotiating skills, a spokesman for Rajapakse's office said.He said the team headed by Health Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva were at a workshop and were also getting the views of a cross-section of Sri Lankan political parties.
Diplomats said Swiss, Norwegian and Sri Lankan diplomats began making final preparations Tuesday to host the talks and make travel arrangements for the Tiger rebels to leave their northern stronghold and head to Europe.Monday's announcement by Norway of the talks triggered a spurt on the Colombo Stock Exchange Tuesday, with share prices rising about one percent but they eased at the close due to profit-taking, brokers said.The benchmark All Share Price Index closed at 2,130.66 or 0.30 percent higher compared to the previous close.
"There is a lot of profit-taking by those who bought at rock-bottom prices when there was a lot of violence in the past two months," broker Elton Ebert said. "The market should be positive in the short term."
Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim who on Monday worked out the final dates said he would lead Norway's own team. The four-member Tiger delegation would be led by the LTTE's London-based ideologue Anton Balasingham.The two sides had their last face-to-face meeting in Japan in March 2003 but the Tigers pulled out of what would have been the seventh round of negotiations scheduled in Thailand in April 2003.Four previous peace attempts have ended in failure and led to more bloodshed.
Sri Lanka Negotiation
Simulation
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Leaders of Sudan, Chad sign peace deal; agree to bar rebel groups, normalize relations
Associated Press, 2/9/06
The leaders of Sudan and Chad have signed a peace agreement to end increasing tension over Sudan's Darfur region, pledging to normalize diplomatic relations and deny refuge to each other's rebel groups.
Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir and Chad's president Idriss Deby pledged late Wednesday, after a day of talks hosted by Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, "to immediately commit themselves to work to prevent the presence of rebels on each other territory," Libya's Jamhiriya news agency reported.A communique issued by Sudan, Chad and Libya, as well as Burkino Faso, Congo and the Central African Republic, whose leaders attended the talks, said a committee of African countries overseen by Libya would monitor the implementation of the deal. "The Tripoli peace agreement will enable the two countries to restore their good relations after they were about to go into the wrong path," Deby said.
Tensions between the two nations have grown amid continuing bloodshed in western Darfur, which borders Chad, where Sudanese forces and Arab militiamen have been fighting ethnic African rebel groups who accuse the government of neglect and discrimination.The government is widely alleged to have unleashed Arab militias, called Janjaweed, to carry out sweeping atrocities against ethnic African villagers. El-Bashir denies his government supports the Janjaweed.
Sudan has accused Chad of harboring Darfur rebels, while Chad has said Sudan backs Chadian insurgents. Rights groups have said Chadian and Sudanese militias in Darfur have launched frequent cross-border raids, killing Chadian civilians.
The deal Wednesday called for the establishment of an African force, separate from African Union troops already in Darfur, to preserve security on the border. It made no recommendations on financing or the number of countries involved."We will commit ourselves to the agreement because we are seriously endeavoring to exert sincere efforts which will be practically reflected in improving good neighborly relations," el-Bashir told the meeting, according to Jamhiriya.
The U.N. Security Council last week authorized planning for the expected U.N. takeover of peacekeeping operations in Darfur.The African Union has yet to agree to transform its 7,000-strong peacekeeping force in Darfur into a U.N. peacekeeping force, a move supported by many nations, including the United States."It is shameful that Africa resorts to weapons whenever there is a dispute. Unfortunately, we turn all our differences into wars, which gives an opportunity for foreign interference," Gadhafi said.An estimated 180,000 people have died, mainly of hunger and disease, and some 2 million have been displaced since the Darfur conflict started three years ago.
Associated Press, 2/10/06
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Thursday he will ask President Bush for the United Statse to play a major role in a peacekeeping force in Sudan's Darfur region.
Annan said Darfur's plight is too severe for rich nations, including the United States, to simply fund the mission while third world nations contribute troops a practice that is largely the norm for U.N. peacekeeping missions around the world."It is not going to be easy for the big and powerful countries with armies to delegate it to third world countries," Annan told reporters. "They will have to play a part if we are going to stop the carnage that we see in Darfur." Annan said he planned to raise the issue with Bush during a White House meeting Monday. The United States currently pays about a quarter of the U.N. peacekeeping budget, which topped $5 billion in 2005, but provides a very small percentage of troops or police.Annan said the Darfur mission will need a "completely different force." That means highly trained troops with solid logistical support, backed by air power, with the ability to move quickly.
On Thursday, the U.N. Security Council authorized planning for the United Nations to take over peacekeeping duties in Darfur from the African Union, whose 7,000 troops have been hampered by shoddy equipment, poor training and lack of funds.The African Union troops have made a difference where they are stationed, but have been unable to bring lasting peace to Darfur, where an estimated 180,000 people have died in violence since 2003. The United States and several other nations have said genocide occurred in Sudan.
The U.N. mission must send a message to those responsible for the violence "that we have a force that is capable to respond, a force that is everywhere and a force that will be there on time to prevent them from intimidating and killing the innocent civilians," Annan said.The United States has been reluctant to contribute troops since 18 U.S. soldiers were killed in clashes with gunmen in 1993 during the peacekeeping mission in Somalia.U.S. Mission spokesman Richard Grenell would not comment on whether the United States planned to contribute troops.
Genocide in Darfur: A Legal Analysis
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